Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 29 2020 7756 37967 243 57 978 1891
November 30 2020 7790 38123 243 57 860 1641
December 01 2020 7854 38250 245 58 779 1603
December 02 2020 7909 38383 248 59 727 1307
December 03 2020 7956 38522 248 59 706 1178
December 04 2020 8039 38754 250 59 703 1109
December 05 2020 8099 38881 253 61 620 1024
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 3.7 5.2% 32 0.28% 49 0.43%
10-19 6 6.4 10.5% 65 0.48% 118 0.87%
20-29 17 18.4 27.7% 172 0.82% 274 1.31%
30-39 11 11.0 16.8% 104 0.76% 168 1.23%
40-49 7 7.1 11.9% 74 0.71% 125 1.19%
50-59 6 7.3 12.1% 75 0.6% 129 1.03%
60-69 7 5.6 9.5% 59 0.51% 95 0.83%
70+ 2 3.0 6.3% 39 0.37% 66 0.63%
All ages 60 62.6 100% 620 0.59% 1024 0.98%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 29 2020 4598 22959 130 51 704 1087
November 30 2020 4666 23035 132 51 697 1086
December 01 2020 4794 23095 134 52 619 1101
December 02 2020 4921 23146 138 53 666 1124
December 03 2020 4990 23207 139 53 686 1096
December 04 2020 5051 23328 141 53 675 1082
December 05 2020 5140 23414 145 55 685 965
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 2.7 3.2% 22 0.28% 35 0.45%
10-19 9 9.4 10.9% 75 0.89% 97 1.15%
20-29 13 13.7 15.6% 107 1.5% 152 2.14%
30-39 13 15.1 18% 123 1.46% 163 1.94%
40-49 14 15.4 17.7% 121 1.56% 177 2.28%
50-59 14 10.4 12.1% 83 0.86% 125 1.29%
60-69 8 7.0 8% 55 0.65% 85 1.01%
70+ 18 12.6 14.5% 99 1.39% 131 1.84%
All ages 89 86.4 100% 685 1.06% 965 1.49%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 29 2020 3580 15261 139 41 557 939
November 30 2020 3619 15354 142 41 481 898
December 01 2020 3650 15395 148 41 438 896
December 02 2020 3688 15466 151 41 438 806
December 03 2020 3721 15508 154 41 414 698
December 04 2020 3754 15580 156 42 409 616
December 05 2020 3802 15697 156 40 395 590
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 1.7 5.3% 21 0.39% 31 0.57%
10-19 7 3.1 9.1% 36 0.66% 49 0.9%
20-29 7 4.9 13.2% 52 1.15% 77 1.7%
30-39 10 4.9 14.9% 59 1.09% 84 1.55%
40-49 8 4.0 11.9% 47 0.94% 74 1.49%
50-59 5 4.3 13.7% 54 0.8% 89 1.31%
60-69 2 5.6 13.7% 54 0.85% 78 1.23%
70+ 4 6.4 18.2% 72 1.14% 108 1.71%
All ages 48 34.9 100% 395 0.87% 590 1.3%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 29 2020 8011 40550 158 35 1092 1726
November 30 2020 8087 40669 162 35 1006 1638
December 01 2020 8126 40839 170 36 839 1485
December 02 2020 8209 40943 173 37 869 1364
December 03 2020 8400 41172 180 38 999 1481
December 04 2020 8556 41411 180 39 1056 1475
December 05 2020 8641 41604 181 39 990 1354
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 4.0 4% 40 0.34% 55 0.47%
10-19 11 12.4 11.7% 116 0.7% 150 0.91%
20-29 19 20.7 19.5% 193 0.91% 276 1.3%
30-39 14 17.4 16.7% 165 1.21% 216 1.59%
40-49 10 13.1 12.7% 126 0.93% 169 1.24%
50-59 11 15.1 13.8% 137 0.97% 184 1.3%
60-69 5 10.9 10.9% 108 0.76% 150 1.06%
70+ 9 11.3 10.6% 105 0.81% 154 1.18%
All ages 85 105.0 100% 990 0.84% 1354 1.15%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 29 2020 27236 275143 782 80 3367 5516
November 30 2020 27489 275850 785 80 3172 5266
December 01 2020 27600 276005 794 81 2946 4670
December 02 2020 27830 276346 811 102 2964 4356
December 03 2020 28226 277243 823 102 3220 4357
December 04 2020 28610 278095 837 102 2855 4293
December 05 2020 28947 278814 845 104 2957 4293
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 11 13.3 5% 148 0.25% 213 0.35%
10-19 39 38.9 13% 384 0.54% 616 0.87%
20-29 68 60.6 21.4% 632 0.61% 928 0.89%
30-39 56 53.6 17.5% 516 0.67% 737 0.96%
40-49 54 47.0 15% 444 0.68% 649 0.99%
50-59 57 38.4 12.1% 359 0.55% 490 0.75%
60-69 22 23.1 7.5% 221 0.4% 336 0.61%
70+ 30 25.7 8.6% 253 0.51% 324 0.66%
All ages 337 300.6 100% 2957 0.54% 4293 0.79%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 29 2020 384701 2143790 16999 3307 46229 72332
November 30 2020 387235 2149996 17095 3313 42290 70477
December 01 2020 391313 2156410 17372 3420 40144 67465
December 02 2020 395090 2162616 17569 3502 40414 63253
December 03 2020 399708 2169970 17741 3562 41937 61236
December 04 2020 404555 2180320 17943 3625 40582 59610
December 05 2020 409386 2188949 18126 3702 39944 58217
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 214 169.1 4.4% 1753 0.27% 2552 0.4%
10-19 575 449.4 11% 4403 0.58% 6429 0.85%
20-29 777 677.7 16.8% 6715 0.89% 9920 1.31%
30-39 783 671.9 16% 6391 0.84% 9204 1.22%
40-49 679 595.9 14.6% 5837 0.84% 8473 1.21%
50-59 812 631.1 15.3% 6092 0.75% 8798 1.08%
60-69 502 458.1 11.3% 4495 0.59% 6599 0.87%
70+ 489 420.4 10.7% 4258 0.66% 6242 0.97%
All ages 4831 4073.7 100% 39944 0.69% 58217 1%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
97.9 86.7 130.9 62.6 155 29.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
149.2 86.4 97.6 53.7%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
130.4 34.9 84.4 34.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
114.5 90.6 129.7 105 122.7 38.3%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
78.5 86.7 89.3 300.6 403.6 31.8%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
100 84.9 131.1 4073.7 5732.1 35.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.52 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3400"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red