Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 29 2020 | 7756 | 37967 | 243 | 57 | 978 | 1891 |
| November 30 2020 | 7790 | 38123 | 243 | 57 | 860 | 1641 |
| December 01 2020 | 7854 | 38250 | 245 | 58 | 779 | 1603 |
| December 02 2020 | 7909 | 38383 | 248 | 59 | 727 | 1307 |
| December 03 2020 | 7956 | 38522 | 248 | 59 | 706 | 1178 |
| December 04 2020 | 8039 | 38754 | 250 | 59 | 703 | 1109 |
| December 05 2020 | 8099 | 38881 | 253 | 61 | 620 | 1024 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.7 | 5.2% | 32 | 0.28% | 49 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 6.4 | 10.5% | 65 | 0.48% | 118 | 0.87% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 18.4 | 27.7% | 172 | 0.82% | 274 | 1.31% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 11.0 | 16.8% | 104 | 0.76% | 168 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 7.1 | 11.9% | 74 | 0.71% | 125 | 1.19% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 7.3 | 12.1% | 75 | 0.6% | 129 | 1.03% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 5.6 | 9.5% | 59 | 0.51% | 95 | 0.83% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.0 | 6.3% | 39 | 0.37% | 66 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 60 | 62.6 | 100% | 620 | 0.59% | 1024 | 0.98% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 29 2020 | 4598 | 22959 | 130 | 51 | 704 | 1087 |
| November 30 2020 | 4666 | 23035 | 132 | 51 | 697 | 1086 |
| December 01 2020 | 4794 | 23095 | 134 | 52 | 619 | 1101 |
| December 02 2020 | 4921 | 23146 | 138 | 53 | 666 | 1124 |
| December 03 2020 | 4990 | 23207 | 139 | 53 | 686 | 1096 |
| December 04 2020 | 5051 | 23328 | 141 | 53 | 675 | 1082 |
| December 05 2020 | 5140 | 23414 | 145 | 55 | 685 | 965 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.7 | 3.2% | 22 | 0.28% | 35 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 9.4 | 10.9% | 75 | 0.89% | 97 | 1.15% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 13.7 | 15.6% | 107 | 1.5% | 152 | 2.14% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 15.1 | 18% | 123 | 1.46% | 163 | 1.94% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 15.4 | 17.7% | 121 | 1.56% | 177 | 2.28% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 10.4 | 12.1% | 83 | 0.86% | 125 | 1.29% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 7.0 | 8% | 55 | 0.65% | 85 | 1.01% |
| 70+ | 18 | 12.6 | 14.5% | 99 | 1.39% | 131 | 1.84% |
| All ages | 89 | 86.4 | 100% | 685 | 1.06% | 965 | 1.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 29 2020 | 3580 | 15261 | 139 | 41 | 557 | 939 |
| November 30 2020 | 3619 | 15354 | 142 | 41 | 481 | 898 |
| December 01 2020 | 3650 | 15395 | 148 | 41 | 438 | 896 |
| December 02 2020 | 3688 | 15466 | 151 | 41 | 438 | 806 |
| December 03 2020 | 3721 | 15508 | 154 | 41 | 414 | 698 |
| December 04 2020 | 3754 | 15580 | 156 | 42 | 409 | 616 |
| December 05 2020 | 3802 | 15697 | 156 | 40 | 395 | 590 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 1.7 | 5.3% | 21 | 0.39% | 31 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 3.1 | 9.1% | 36 | 0.66% | 49 | 0.9% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 4.9 | 13.2% | 52 | 1.15% | 77 | 1.7% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 4.9 | 14.9% | 59 | 1.09% | 84 | 1.55% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 4.0 | 11.9% | 47 | 0.94% | 74 | 1.49% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.3 | 13.7% | 54 | 0.8% | 89 | 1.31% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 5.6 | 13.7% | 54 | 0.85% | 78 | 1.23% |
| 70+ | 4 | 6.4 | 18.2% | 72 | 1.14% | 108 | 1.71% |
| All ages | 48 | 34.9 | 100% | 395 | 0.87% | 590 | 1.3% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 29 2020 | 8011 | 40550 | 158 | 35 | 1092 | 1726 |
| November 30 2020 | 8087 | 40669 | 162 | 35 | 1006 | 1638 |
| December 01 2020 | 8126 | 40839 | 170 | 36 | 839 | 1485 |
| December 02 2020 | 8209 | 40943 | 173 | 37 | 869 | 1364 |
| December 03 2020 | 8400 | 41172 | 180 | 38 | 999 | 1481 |
| December 04 2020 | 8556 | 41411 | 180 | 39 | 1056 | 1475 |
| December 05 2020 | 8641 | 41604 | 181 | 39 | 990 | 1354 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.0 | 4% | 40 | 0.34% | 55 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 12.4 | 11.7% | 116 | 0.7% | 150 | 0.91% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 20.7 | 19.5% | 193 | 0.91% | 276 | 1.3% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 17.4 | 16.7% | 165 | 1.21% | 216 | 1.59% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 13.1 | 12.7% | 126 | 0.93% | 169 | 1.24% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 15.1 | 13.8% | 137 | 0.97% | 184 | 1.3% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 10.9 | 10.9% | 108 | 0.76% | 150 | 1.06% |
| 70+ | 9 | 11.3 | 10.6% | 105 | 0.81% | 154 | 1.18% |
| All ages | 85 | 105.0 | 100% | 990 | 0.84% | 1354 | 1.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 29 2020 | 27236 | 275143 | 782 | 80 | 3367 | 5516 |
| November 30 2020 | 27489 | 275850 | 785 | 80 | 3172 | 5266 |
| December 01 2020 | 27600 | 276005 | 794 | 81 | 2946 | 4670 |
| December 02 2020 | 27830 | 276346 | 811 | 102 | 2964 | 4356 |
| December 03 2020 | 28226 | 277243 | 823 | 102 | 3220 | 4357 |
| December 04 2020 | 28610 | 278095 | 837 | 102 | 2855 | 4293 |
| December 05 2020 | 28947 | 278814 | 845 | 104 | 2957 | 4293 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 13.3 | 5% | 148 | 0.25% | 213 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 39 | 38.9 | 13% | 384 | 0.54% | 616 | 0.87% |
| 20-29 | 68 | 60.6 | 21.4% | 632 | 0.61% | 928 | 0.89% |
| 30-39 | 56 | 53.6 | 17.5% | 516 | 0.67% | 737 | 0.96% |
| 40-49 | 54 | 47.0 | 15% | 444 | 0.68% | 649 | 0.99% |
| 50-59 | 57 | 38.4 | 12.1% | 359 | 0.55% | 490 | 0.75% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 23.1 | 7.5% | 221 | 0.4% | 336 | 0.61% |
| 70+ | 30 | 25.7 | 8.6% | 253 | 0.51% | 324 | 0.66% |
| All ages | 337 | 300.6 | 100% | 2957 | 0.54% | 4293 | 0.79% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 29 2020 | 384701 | 2143790 | 16999 | 3307 | 46229 | 72332 |
| November 30 2020 | 387235 | 2149996 | 17095 | 3313 | 42290 | 70477 |
| December 01 2020 | 391313 | 2156410 | 17372 | 3420 | 40144 | 67465 |
| December 02 2020 | 395090 | 2162616 | 17569 | 3502 | 40414 | 63253 |
| December 03 2020 | 399708 | 2169970 | 17741 | 3562 | 41937 | 61236 |
| December 04 2020 | 404555 | 2180320 | 17943 | 3625 | 40582 | 59610 |
| December 05 2020 | 409386 | 2188949 | 18126 | 3702 | 39944 | 58217 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 214 | 169.1 | 4.4% | 1753 | 0.27% | 2552 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 575 | 449.4 | 11% | 4403 | 0.58% | 6429 | 0.85% |
| 20-29 | 777 | 677.7 | 16.8% | 6715 | 0.89% | 9920 | 1.31% |
| 30-39 | 783 | 671.9 | 16% | 6391 | 0.84% | 9204 | 1.22% |
| 40-49 | 679 | 595.9 | 14.6% | 5837 | 0.84% | 8473 | 1.21% |
| 50-59 | 812 | 631.1 | 15.3% | 6092 | 0.75% | 8798 | 1.08% |
| 60-69 | 502 | 458.1 | 11.3% | 4495 | 0.59% | 6599 | 0.87% |
| 70+ | 489 | 420.4 | 10.7% | 4258 | 0.66% | 6242 | 0.97% |
| All ages | 4831 | 4073.7 | 100% | 39944 | 0.69% | 58217 | 1% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97.9 | 86.7 | 130.9 | 62.6 | 155 | 29.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149.2 | 86.4 | 97.6 | 53.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130.4 | 34.9 | 84.4 | 34.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114.5 | 90.6 | 129.7 | 105 | 122.7 | 38.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.5 | 86.7 | 89.3 | 300.6 | 403.6 | 31.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 84.9 | 131.1 | 4073.7 | 5732.1 | 35.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.52 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3400"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges